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viernes, 24 de febrero de 2012

Cuantos más elementos independientes son necesarios para completar un proyecto, más (que más) fácil es que el proyecto fracase

The more independent steps that are involved in achieving a scenarios, the more opportunities for failure and the less likely it is that the scenario will happen. We often underestimate the number of steps, people, and decisions involved. Add to this that we often forget that the reliability of a system is a function of the whole system. The weakest link sets the upper limit for the whole chain.
Peter Bevelin,
Biases in the evaluation of compound events are particularly significant in the context of planning. The successful completion of an undertaking, such as the development of a new product or thesis, typically has a conjunctive character: for the undertaking to succeed, each of a series of events must occur. Even when each of these events is very likely, the overall probability of success can be quite low if the number of events is large.
The general tendency to overestimate the probability of conjunctive events leads to unwarranted optimism in the evaluation of the likelihood that a plan will success or that a project will be completed on time. Conversely, disjunctive structures are typically encountered in the evaluation of risks. A complex system, such as a nuclear reactor or the human body, will malfunction if any of its essential components fails. Even when the likelihood of failure in each component is slight, the probability of an overall failure can be high if many components are involved. Because of anchoring, people will tend to underestimate the probabilities of failure in complex systems. Thus, the direction of the anchoring bias can sometimes be inferred from the structure of the event. The chain-like structure of conjunctions leads to over-estimation, the funnel-like structure of disjunctions leads to underestimation.
Daniel Kahneman
¿Se le ocurren consecuencias para el Derecho? Alguna tiene que ver con el comportamiento de las partes que han de celebrar un contrato complejo con múltiples prestaciones recíprocas y cuya ejecución se prolonga en el tiempo. Si las partes tienen en cuenta el mas que proporcional incremento del riesgo de fracaso del contrato como consecuencia de la acumulación en el mismo de elementos independientes unos de otros, (i) establecerán una regla de nulidad parcial; (ii) En la duda, regularán parcamente sus relaciones en lo que a aquellos elementos que son condición necesaria para que el contrato siga ejecutándose satisfactoriamente y (iii)utilizarán cláusulas generales – remisión al Juez - o (iv) establecerán mecanismos para la adopción de decisiones unilaterales – remisión a una de las partes -  o por un tercero en un momento posterior a la celebración del contrato.

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