El otro blog para cosas más serias

El otro blog para cosas más serias
El otro blog para cosas más serias

lunes, 11 de octubre de 2010

El futuro visto por un abogado alemán convertido en inversor estadounidense en tecnología WSJ

"All sorts of things are possible in a world where you have massive progress in technology and related gains in productivity," he says. "In a world where wealth is growing, you can get away with printing money. Doubling the debt over the next 20 years is not a problem."

"This is where [today is] very different from the 1930s. In the '30s, the Keynesian stuff worked at least in the sense that you could print money without inflation because there was all this productivity growth happening. That's not going to work today.

"The people who bought subprime houses in Miami were betting on technological progress. They were betting on energy prices coming down and living standards going up." They were betting, in short, on the productivity gains to make our debts affordable.
"People don't want to believe that technology is broken. . . . Pharmaceuticals, robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology—all these areas where the progress has been a lot more limited than people think. And the question is why."

In true macro sense, he sees that failure as central to our current fiscal fix. Credit is about the future, he says, and a credit crisis is when the future turns out not as expected. Our policy leaders, though, have yet to see this bigger picture. "Bernanke, Geithner, Summers—you may not agree with the them ideologically, but they're quite good as macroeconomists go," Mr. Thiel says. "But the big variable that they're betting on is that there's all this technological progress happening in the background. And if that's wrong, it's just not going to work. You will not get this incredible, self-sustaining recovery.

And President Obama? "I'm not sure I'd describe him as a socialist. I might even say he has a naive and touching faith in capitalism. He believes you can impose all sorts of burdens on the system and it will still work."

The system is telling him otherwise. Mankind, says Mr. Thiel, has no inalienable right to the progress that has characterized the last 200 years. Today's heightened political acrimony is but a foretaste of the "grim Malthusian" politics ahead, with politicians increasingly trying to redistribute the fruits of a stagnant economy, loosing even more forces of stagnation.

Question: How can anyone know science and technology are under-performing compared to potential? It's hard, he admits. Those who know—"university professors, the entrepreneurs, the venture capitalists"—are "biased" in favor of the idea that rapid progress is happening, he says, because they're raising money. "The other 98%"—he means you and me, who in this age of specialization treat science and technology as akin to magic—"don't know anything."
But look, he says, at the future we once portrayed for ourselves in "The Jetsons." We don't have flying cars. Space exploration is stalled. There are no undersea cities. Household robots do not cater to our needs. Nuclear power "we should be building like crazy," he says, but we're sitting on our hands.

The great exception is information technology, whose rapid advance is no fluke: "So far computers and the Internet have been the one sector immune from excessive regulation."…
With faster innovation, it would be easier to dig out of our hole. With enough robots, even Social Security and Medicare become affordable.
"In China and India," he says, "there's no need for any innovation. Their business model for the next 20 years is copy the West." The West, he says, needs to do "new things."
Peter Thiel

No hay comentarios:

Archivo del blog