domingo, 6 de junio de 2010

¿Tiene España que salir del euro? M. Pettis

As long as the ECB refused to raise interest rates, 


southern Europe had to accept asset bubbles and rapidly rising debt-fueled consumption. This couldn’t go on forever, or even for very long.  Now southern Europe is paying the inevitable price, and of course the moralists are accusing the south of being shiftless and lazy, confusing the automatic balancing mechanisms in the balance of payments with moral weakness.... Spain simply cannot remain within the euro without making radical political changes... monetary conditions cannot be maintained...  The foreign exchange rate value of the currency matters... Like France in the 1920s, the sooner Spain – and by extension the rest of southern Europe – admits that current monetary conditions are untenable, the less damage it is likely to suffer.  The current system, in which fiscal authority is concentrated in Madrid and monetary policy is determined by the needs of the euro, will create insurmountable political opposition as many years of high unemployment turn the population to more radical solutions. Spain will almost certainly have to choose.  Either it gives up fiscal sovereignty – including, most importantly, taxation authority – to Brussels, or it gives up the euro.  The alternative, several years of difficult adjustment borne mostly by workers, is politically unlikely. 

viernes, 4 de junio de 2010

La nueva "poison pill"

In 2007 Amylin Pharmaceuticals issued 3.00% convertible senior notes due 2014. The Note Indenture gives the noteholders the right to demand redemption of any or all of their notes at face value upon the occurrence of "Fundamental Change," which occurs, among other time, when “the Continuing Directors do not constitute a majority of the Company’s Board of Directors . . . .” The Indenture defines “Continuing Directors” as follows: (i) individuals who on the Issue Date constituted the Board of Directors and (ii) any new directors whose election to the Board of Directors or whose nomination for election by the stockholders of the Company was approved by at least a majority of the directors then still in office (or a duly constituted committee thereof) either who were directors on the Issue Date or whose election or nomination for election was previously so approved.

Este resumen lo hemos tomado de aquí

Y el juez, tras decir que la cláusula era válida, dice

CITAS

"innovators would spend a greater portion of their early life-cycle in education – as opposed to actively innovating – so that innovation becomes less likely at young ages (porque tienen que pasar más tiempo formándose para adquirir el creciente volumen de conocimientos en cada ámbito científico). The second dimension, the narrowing of expertise, is essentially a ‘death of the Renaissance man’ effect. It will tend to reduce the technology-wide capacities of individual innovators, who become less able to draw on knowledge in other fields in their creative process and less capable of implementing ideas by themselves. The narrowing of expertise thus suggests... innovators increasingly working in teams.

"if when housing prices were rising so rapidly, more speculators had been shorting the housing market, or shorted mortgage-backed securities whose value depended on what happened in the housing market, their actions would have reduced the sharp increase in housing prices, and reduced the subsequent steep fall in these prices. Therefore, it was the absence of sufficient short speculators when commodity and asset prices were rising sharply that helped widen the run up and eventual collapse in these prices"

POSNER SOBRE LA CONDUCTA DEL REBAÑO: APLICACIONES

En otra entrada resumíamos un paper en el que se explicaba que seguir a los demás, aunque sea a un precipicio, puede ser una conducta racional. Posner, en su blog con Becker, lo explica maravillosamente:

Buying a house or other asset because other people are doing so may seem an example of irrational “herd” behavior. But herd behavior is not irrational. If you are an antelope, and you see your fellow antelopes begin to stampede, you are well advised to join them, because they may be fleeing from a lion".
Traducción asistida por Google: Comprar una casa u otro bien porque otras personas lo están haciendo puede parecer un ejemplo de comportamiento de "rebaño" e irracional. Pero el comportamiento de rebaño no es irracional. Si usted es un antílope, y ve que los otros antílopes comienzan una estampida, hará bien en hacer lo mismo porque puede que estén huyendo de un león"..

Y una brillante explicación de la quiebra de Lehman Brothers:

PROFESORES CONTRA LA ECONOMÍA

En una entrada anterior, decíamos que parece que la gente de izquierdas sabe menos de Economía. Pero era en EE.UU. Resulta que, en Andalucía, se concentran personas que unen la cualidad de profesores universitarios de Economía y ser de izquierdas y que han firmado un manifiesto que dice lo siguiente

KINDER SORPRESA, MARCAS Y COMPETENCIA DESLEAL

La Sentencia del Tribunal Supremo de 4 de marzo de 2010 tiene mucho interés porque revoca la de la Audiencia Provincial se ocupa de una demanda por infracción de marcas y competencia desleal (kinder sorpresa). Su interés radica en que el Supremo no parece muy dispuesto a permitir que una idea empresarial exitosa otorgue al que la creó un derecho de monopolio. Y que los competidores pueden reproducir la idea fabricando un producto idéntico siempre que no generen confusión en el mercado, confusión que se evita con el uso de marcas propias.  El Supremo considera que no hay confundibilidad
Foto: 1x.com Last passenger© Tim Corbeel

LAS LIGAS PIERDEN POR GOLEADA

….The Supreme Court issued its opinion in the American Needle case this morning and ruled that the actions of the NFL in licensing its trademarks for sports gear were collective actions subject to Sherman Act Section 1 inquiry, en una votación que arrojó el resultado de 9 a 0. Lo acabamos de ver en el Blog de la Facultad de Derecho de Chicago. La sentencia está aquí. Los párrafos más destacables

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